The 2018-2023 World Outlook for Natural Gas Refueling

by Icon Group International

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This study covers the world outlook for natural gas refueling across more than 190 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region, and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for natural gas refueling. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world's regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.



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price: $995.00
bound: 286 pages
publisher: ICON Group International, Inc. (May 17, 2017)
lang: English
asin: B06WRMSBXD
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weight: 1.8 pounds (
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The 2018-2023 World Outlook for Natural Gas Refueling
In the IEO2016 Reference case, Mexico’s net natural gas imports more than double, to 1.3 Tcf in 2040, after reaching their highest level in the mid-2020sBy the end of the projection period, the IEO2016 Reference case includes large volumes of pipeline flows into China from both Russia and Central Asia (see "Global LNG trade and supply,")Iran plans to expand the domestic pipeline network to more than 35 Bcf/d by 2017, adding 1,709 miles (2,750 km) of new pipelines at a cost of $6.3 billion and investing more than $15 billion in expansion and upgrades of the existing domestic pipeline networkNatural gas prices in Asia In Asian markets, unlike those in the United States, natural gas prices typically reflect contracts that are indexed to prices for crude oil or petroleum productsAs Chinese companies have gained experience in shale gas production, their drilling costs have declinedAs a result, the share of world proved natural gas reserves located in OECD countries has declined from 10% in 1996 to 9% in 2016In Europe, where natural gas is imported both by pipeline and as LNG, natural gas prices are either indexed to crude oil prices or based on the spot market

From 2020 to 2040, Japan’s real GDP increases by an average of 0.5%/year, by far the lowest in the region, as a result of its declining population and aging work forceThe higher prices are the result of forecasted consumption and exports exceeding forecasted production and imports, which implies that the difference will be supplied from inventoriesfigure data figure data In the spring and fall of 2015, four more floating terminals came onlineone each in Pakistan and Jordan and two in Egyptadding 1.9 Bcf/d of new capacity [80]AfricaMost of those 12 countries are relatively small markets that opted for floating regasification units (FSRU) as a fast and cost-effective way to meet growing demand for natural gasAs of 2015, 18 FSRUs were functioning as both transportation and regasification vessels, and 5 permanently moored regasification units had been converted from conventional LNG vessels to FSRUsThe annual rate of growth in world proved natural gas reserves from 1980 to 1995 was notably higher than it has been in more recent years

Qatar's natural gas exports grow by an average of 1.2%/year from 2010 to 2040 in the IEO2016 Reference caseIn the United States, rising domestic production reduces the need for imports, primarily as a result of robust growth in regional production of shale gasVarying Parameter, Non-Linear EstimationCurrently, Mexico has three regasification terminals: Altamira, on the east coast, commissioned in 2006, with 0.7 Bcf/d capacity; Ensenada (also called Energia Costa Azul) on the west coast in operation since 2008 with 1.0 Bcf/d capacity; and Manzanillo on the west coast commissioned in 2012 with 0.5 Bcf/d capacityOn Qatar’s side, the field is called the North FieldThe report provides an analytical overview with detailed sales projections and analysis of the market, the competitors, and the commercial drivers and restraintsNet imports to Brazil remain essentially flat from 2012 through 2040Among all regions of the world, the fastest growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2016 Reference case occurs in non-OECD AsiaNIGC estimates that to meet the rapidly growing domestic demand for natural gas, Iran will need more than $20 billion in investment to upgrade and expand its domestic pipeline infrastructurefigure data Australia, already a significant player in the LNG industry, exported 3.2 Bcf/d of LNG in 2014 and brought the first of its seven new projectsQueensland Curtis LNG Train 1 [79]online in late 2014 and Train 2 in mid-2015

India has proposed to develop Iran's 12.8 Tcf Farzad-B natural gas field and is considering construction of subsea pipeline to link Iran directly with IndiaIn the IEO2016 Reference case, natural gas consumption in China totals 9.1 Tcf in 2020, or about 6% of the country’s total energy consumption1.3.5 Step 5An increase in natural gas use through 2040 is certainly possible in scenarios with low gas prices and implementation strategies that favor gasChina already is producing small volumes of coalbed methane and significant volumes of tight gas (Figure 3-21) (see "Shale gas development in China: Government investment and decreasing well costs")Risks include terrorist threats in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, an enclave of Pakistani insurgents, and contract pricing that has not been finalizedThe country's lack of pipeline connectivity with other markets, low volumes of flexible LNG, and lack of LNG price transparency and liquidity have limited spot LNG trading activity on the JOENatural gas production in Canada grows by 1.2%/year on average over the projection period, from 6.1 Tcf in 2012 to 8.6 Tcf in 2040While the recently finalized Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulations in the United States are not included in the IEO2016 Reference case, its effects are considered in discussions, tables, and figures throughout the report, based on prior U.Sfigure data 5d8a9798ff
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